Historians and archaeologists have proposed several theories to explain the decline of the Harappan (Indus Valley) Civilization, which began around 1900 BCE and culminated in the eventual collapse of urban centers by 1300 BCE. The decline appears to be a gradual and complex process influenced by a combination of factors:
Environmental Changes: Many scholars believe that climatic changes, such as a prolonged drought or a shift in monsoon patterns, led to declining agricultural productivity. This would have disrupted the food supply and forced people to abandon urban settlements.
River Shifts: Geological evidence indicates that rivers like the Ghaggar-Hakra (possibly the ancient Saraswati) dried up or changed course. This would have had devastating effects on irrigation, trade, and daily life in Harappan cities.
Decline in Trade: Harappan civilization had active trade links with Mesopotamia and regions in present-day Iran and Afghanistan. A disruption in trade, possibly due to internal political changes in those regions, may have weakened the Harappan economy.
Overuse of Resources: Deforestation for agriculture, construction, and fuel may have led to ecological imbalance and soil degradation, contributing to urban decline.
Invasion or Conflict: Early theories suggested Aryan invasions as a cause of decline. However, recent archaeological evidence does not support this. Rather than a violent end, the civilization appears to have gradually disintegrated.
Social Changes: There may have been internal social upheavals, including a possible breakdown in urban administrative structures or changes in societal norms that led to decentralization and ruralization.
Most historians today reject a single-cause explanation and emphasize a multi-causal model involving ecological, economic, and sociopolitical factors working in tandem.