Question

The tendency to falsely believe, through revision of older memories to include newer information, that one could have correctly predicted the outcome of an event is known as:

• A. Misinformation effect
• B. Constructive processing
• C. Hindsight bias
• D. Recency effect

Hint:

To remember hindsight bias, think of watching a mystery movie for the second time. The clues seem so obvious, and you feel like you should have solved it easily the first time. That feeling of obviousness *in hindsight* is the bias.

Answer 1

The Correct Option is C

Step 1: Understanding the Concept:
The question describes a specific cognitive bias where, after learning the outcome of an event, a person believes they "knew it all along" and that the outcome was predictable.
Step 2: Detailed Explanation:
(A) Misinformation effect: This occurs when a person's recall of an event is altered by misleading information presented after the event. While related to memory revision, it doesn't specifically involve the feeling of predictability.
(B) Constructive processing: This is a broader theory of memory which states that memories are not static recordings but are reconstructed or rebuilt at the time of retrieval, potentially leading to errors and biases. Hindsight bias can be seen as an example of constructive processing.
(C) Hindsight bias: This is the precise term for the "I-knew-it-all-along" phenomenon. It is the tendency to see past events as having been more predictable than they actually were. This perfectly matches the question's description.
(D) Recency effect: This is the tendency to remember the most recently presented information best. It is a feature of serial position effect in memory and is unrelated to predicting past outcomes.
Step 3: Final Answer:
The tendency to falsely believe that one could have predicted an outcome after it has occurred is known as hindsight bias.