In 2002, according to a news poll, 36% of the voters had leaning towards party “Y”. In 2004, this figure rose to 46%. But in another survey the percentage was down to 40%. Therefore, the party “Z” is likely to win the next election. Which of the following, if true, would seriously weaken the above conclusion?
- People tend to switch their votes at the last minute.
- It has been showed that 85% of the voters belonging to the party “Y” vote in an election as compared to 80% of the voters belonging to party ”Z”.
- 35% of people favour party “Z”.
- No one can predict how people will vote.
The Correct Option is C
Solution and Explanation
The conclusion drawn is that party "Z" is likely to win the next election based on the fluctuating support for party "Y". To evaluate the strength of this conclusion, we need to consider additional information that can impact the outcome. The correct option that weakens the conclusion is: "35% of people favour party 'Z'." Here's why:
1. Initial Data Analysis: In the years 2002 to 2004, support for party "Y" fluctuated between 36% and 46%, and then dropped to 40%. This shows a potential decline but does not directly correlate to party "Z" gaining more support.
2. Comparison with Party "Z": The statement "35% of people favour party 'Z'" provides a direct comparison point. Even though support for party "Y" declined, with 40% still backing them, party "Z" only has 35% backing, which is less than that for party "Y".
3. Impact on Conclusion: The weakening factor arises because if party "Z" has only 35% support and party "Y" maintains 40%, party "Y" still has more overall support compared to "Z". Thus, this challenges the initial conclusion that "Z" is the likely winner.
Considering these points, if "35% of people favour party 'Z'," it seriously challenges the prediction of party "Z" winning, as it doesn't command the majority over party "Y".
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