Question:

A urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls.A ball is drawn at random,its colour is noted and is returned to the urn.Morever,2 additional balls of the colour drawn are put in the urn and then a ball is drawn at random.What is the probability that the second ball is red?

Updated On: Sep 20, 2023
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Solution and Explanation

The correct answer is: \(\frac{1}{2}\)
The urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. 
Let a red ball be drawn in the first attempt.
P (drawing a red ball)\(=\frac{5}{10}=\frac{1}{2}\)
If two red balls are added to the urn, then the urn contains 7 red and 5 black balls.
P (drawing a red ball)\(=\frac{7}{12}\)
Let a black ball be drawn in the first attempt
P (drawing a black ball in the first attempt)\(=\frac{5}{10}=\frac{1}{2}\)
If two black balls are added to the urn, then the urn contains 5 red and 7 black balls. 
P (drawing a red ball)\(=\frac{5}{12}\)
Therefore, probability of drawing second ball as red is
\(\frac{1}{2}\times \frac{7}{12}+\frac{1}{2}\times \frac{5}{12}=\frac{1}{2}(\frac{7}{12}+\frac{5}{12})=\frac{1}{2}\times 1=\frac{1}{2}\)
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Concepts Used:

Bayes Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem is a part of the conditional probability that helps in finding the probability of an event, based on previous knowledge of conditions that might be related to that event.

Mathematically, Bayes’ Theorem is stated as:-

\(P(A|B)=\frac{P(B|A)P(A)}{P(B)}\)

where,

  • Events A and B are mutually exhaustive events.
  • P(A) and P(B) are the probabilities of events A and B, respectively.
  • P(A|B) is the conditional probability of the happening of event A, given that event B has happened.
  • P(B|A) is the conditional probability of the happening of event B, given that event A has already happened.

This formula confines well as long as there are only two events. However, Bayes’ Theorem is not confined to two events. Hence, for more events.