Question

Which of the following is an example of a regional planning tool used for forecasting future population growth?

• A. Environmental impact assessment
• B. Housing affordability analysis
• C. Land use zoning
• D. Population projection models

Hint:

\textbf{Population projection models} are statistical and demographic methods used to forecast future population trends (size, age-sex structure, distribution).
These forecasts are crucial inputs for regional planning, guiding infrastructure, housing, and service provision.
Common models include cohort-component, extrapolation, and economic-based models.
EIA, housing affordability analysis, and zoning are planning tools or assessments that may *use* population forecasts but are not methods for forecasting population itself.

Answer 1

The Correct Option is D

Forecasting future population growth is a critical component of regional planning, as it informs decisions about infrastructure, housing, services, and land use. Let's analyze the options:
(a) Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA): An EIA is a process used to evaluate the likely environmental impacts of a proposed project or development, taking into account inter-related socio-economic, cultural and human-health impacts, both beneficial and adverse. It assesses impacts of development, it doesn't forecast population growth itself, though population forecasts might be an input to an EIA.
(b) Housing affordability analysis: This tool assesses the ability of different income groups to afford housing in a particular area. It uses current and projected income data and housing costs. While population growth impacts housing demand and affordability, this analysis itself isn't a population forecasting tool.
(c) Land use zoning: Zoning is a regulatory tool used to control the use of land and the type, density, and scale of development in different areas. Zoning plans are often based on population forecasts (to allocate sufficient land for different uses), but zoning itself is not a method for forecasting population.
(d) Population projection models: These are mathematical or statistical models used to estimate future population size, composition (age, sex), and distribution. Common methods include:
Cohort-component method: Projects population by age and sex based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality, and migration rates.
Extrapolation methods: Based on past population trends (e.g., linear, geometric, exponential growth).
Ratio methods: Based on the region's historical share of a larger area's population.
Economic base models: Link population growth to employment and economic activity. These models are specifically designed for forecasting future population growth and are essential tools in regional planning. Therefore, Population projection models are the tools used for forecasting future population growth. \[ \boxed{\text{Population projection models}} \]