To determine which assumption is implicit in the statement, let's analyze the information given:
Statement: The target of a fiscal deficit of 5% of GDP could not be met due to a major shortfall in revenue collections.
Assumptions:
- 1. Shortfall in revenue collections leads to an increase in fiscal deficit.
- 2. Shortfall in revenue collections leads to a decrease in fiscal deficit.
Analysis:
The statement directly connects the inability to meet the fiscal deficit target with a shortfall in revenue collections. This implies that the revenue shortfall negatively impacts the fiscal target. For the fiscal deficit to exceed the target due to revenue shortfall, it would mean that assumption 1, which states that a revenue shortfall leads to an increase in fiscal deficit, is likely implicit.
On the contrary, assumption 2 cannot be implicit because if the revenue collections decrease, it logically leads to an increase, not a decrease, in fiscal deficit, as there are fewer funds to cover expenses.
Conclusion:
The most logical conclusion is that only assumption I is implicit.