Question

In an effort to increase revenues, Sky Air recently partnered with several airlines to create a joint frequent-flier program. In the new program, miles earned on all partner airlines can be combined for reward tickets valid on any airline in the partnership. Sky Air's CEO cites a recent increase in the number of passengers on all the partner airlines as evidence that the new frequent-flier program is having the desired effect. Industry analysts doubt the CEO's claim. Which of the following, if true, best supports the analysts' positions?

• A. Air travel tends to be seasonal, with more passengers traveling during warmer months and holiday periods.
• B. The recent increase in passenger rates for all the partner airlines was predicted by the lowest rates of air travel in the last decade.
• C. Many travelers achieved reward tickets more quickly under the new frequent-flier program and redeemed them recently for free travel.
• D. Travelers redeemed frequent-flier rewards on Sky Air's partners more frequently than on Sky Air.
• E. A study of frequent-flier programs showed that they generally result in increased long-term airline revenues.

Hint:

The most common way to weaken a correlation-causation argument is to find an alternative cause for the observed effect. Always be on the lookout for factors like seasonality, general economic trends, or prior conditions that could explain the outcome.

Answer 1

The Correct Option is A

Step 1: Understanding the Concept:
This is a Critical Reasoning question asking you to support the "analysts' position," which is to weaken the CEO's argument. The CEO's argument is a correlation-causation argument. To weaken it, we should provide an alternative cause for the observed effect.
Step 2: Detailed Explanation:
CEO's Argument:

Cause: New joint frequent-flier program.
Effect: Recent increase in passengers.
Conclusion: The program caused the increase.
Analysts' Position: They doubt the CEO's claim. We need to find evidence that supports this doubt. The best way to do this is to suggest another reason for the increase in passengers.


(A) This is the correct answer. It provides a classic alternative explanation: seasonality. If the "recent increase" happened to coincide with a warmer month or a holiday period, then the increase in passengers could be due to normal seasonal patterns, not the new program. This supports the analysts' doubt.
(B) This suggests the increase was predictable due to a previous low, implying a "rebound" effect. This is also a good alternative explanation, but seasonality (A) is a more common and direct external factor.
(C) This would likely decrease, not increase, revenue, as more people are flying for free. However, the CEO's evidence is about the number of \textit{passengers}, which includes those flying for free. This option doesn't provide an alternative cause for the increase in passengers.
(D) This is about how rewards are redeemed and doesn't explain why the total number of passengers increased across all airlines.
(E) This \textit{supports} the CEO's position, not the analysts'. It suggests that such programs are generally effective.
Step 3: Final Answer:
To weaken the CEO's causal claim, we must provide an alternative cause for the increase in passengers. Option (A) does this by suggesting the increase could be due to normal seasonal variation in air travel, thus supporting the analysts who doubt the CEO's conclusion.