Question

Given below is a quote from "The Book of Why" by Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie.
"While probabilities encode our beliefs about a static world, causality tells us whether and how probabilities change when the world changes, be it by intervention or by act of imagination."
Which of the options is/are implied by the quote?

• A. No matter how much the world appears to change, it is actually quite static.
• B. Changes in the world can be predicted using probabilities.
• C. Big data accurately predicts how a new design will influence society.
• D. Causality helps us make better predictions than probabilities.

Hint:

When interpreting a quote, identify the key terms and the relationship the author establishes between them. Here, the key terms are "probability" and "causality," and the relationship is that causality is a more advanced tool for understanding change.

Answer 1

The Correct Option is D

Step 1: Understanding the Concept:
This is a reading comprehension question that requires interpreting the meaning of a given quote. The quote draws a distinction between "probabilities" and "causality" in the context of a changing world.

Step 2: Detailed Explanation:
Let's break down the quote:

"probabilities encode our beliefs about a static world...": This part suggests that probability theory, on its own, is best suited for describing situations that are not changing. It deals with correlations and likelihoods within a fixed system.
"...causality tells us whether and how probabilities change when the world changes...": This part introduces causality as a more powerful concept. It explains the underlying mechanisms of change. It allows us to understand *why* things change and predict the *effects* of interventions or new circumstances.
Now let's evaluate the options based on this understanding:

(A) This is directly contradicted by the quote, which is explicitly about what happens "when the world changes."
(B) The quote states that probabilities are for a "static world," implying they are insufficient for predicting changes. Causality is needed for that.
(C) This option is an example of prediction. The quote suggests that predictions based purely on data (probabilities) about how things will change are limited. Causality is needed for a more robust prediction. Thus, the quote does not support this claim.
(D) This is the core message of the quote. By explaining *how* and *why* probabilities change, causality provides a deeper understanding of dynamic systems. This allows for more accurate and reliable predictions in a changing world, making it a better tool for prediction than probabilities alone.

Step 3: Final Answer:
The quote implies that understanding causality is superior to relying on static probabilities for making predictions about a changing world. Therefore, option (D) is the correct inference.