Question

Five jumbled up sentences (labelled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5), related to a topic, are given below. Four of them can be put together to form a coherent paragraph. Identify the odd sentence and key in the number of that sentence as your answer.

• A. Part of the appeal of forecasting is not just that it seems to work, but that you don't seem to need specialized expertise to succeed at it.
• B. The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.
• C. This was true even though the latter had access to classified intelligence.
• D. One frequently cited study found that accurate forecasters' predictions of geopolitical events, when aggregated using standard scientific methods, were more accurate than the forecasts of members of the US intelligence community who answered the same questions in a confidential prediction market.
• E. The aggregated opinions of non-experts doing forecasting have proven to be a better guide to the future than the aggregated opinions of experts.

Answer 1

The Correct Option is B

The challenge here is to identify the sentence that does not cohesively integrate into a logical paragraph when combined with the others. To do this, we evaluate thematic consistency and logical flow among the given sentences.

1. Part of the appeal of forecasting is not just that it seems to work, but that you don't seem to need specialized expertise to succeed at it.
2. The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.
3. This was true even though the latter had access to classified intelligence.
4. One frequently cited study found that accurate forecasters' predictions of geopolitical events, when aggregated using standard scientific methods, were more accurate than the forecasts of members of the US intelligence community who answered the same questions in a confidential prediction market.
5. The aggregated opinions of non-experts doing forecasting have proven to be a better guide to the future than the aggregated opinions of experts.

The key topic of discussion seems to be about forecasting, focusing on its effectiveness and how non-experts can sometimes outperform experts, specifically in intelligence predictions.

Upon analysis:

1 - Addresses the appeal of forecasting due to its effectiveness and the non-necessity of expertise.

3 - Supports the theme by indicating this realization despite available intelligence.

4 - Presents a study comparing non-experts and experts, directly related to forecasting accuracy.

5 - Reinforces the finding that non-experts may outperform experts, tying back to the core topic.

2 - Focuses on the link between forecasting and intelligence interest, which although related, does not precisely contribute to the theme of non-experts outperforming experts in forecasting.

Thus, the correct odd sentence is sentence 2 as it deviates from the primary focus. Therefore, the answer is:

The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.