Business is a fine balance between opportunity and risk. In an ideal world the entrepreneur identifies a new opportunity, a
product, a process or a service that would increase user satisfaction. Successful businesses identify opportunities early, and ride
a wave, at minimum risk, to deliver sustained growth and profitability. Bad or incomplete identification of an opportunity or an
inadequate understanding of risk can destroy businesses. The last 18 months have seen a significant number of businesses
destroyed all over the world. Opportunities available to Indian firms eight months ago are now history; risk has increased
manifold.
The high growth environment and the go-go nature of growth in the last decade trivialized the need for a systematic
identification of opportunity and a comprehensive assessment of risk. The pie was so big and growing so quickly, that almost
anything made sense and money. Indian firms expanded capacity, market footprint, acquired firms in high-cost regimes,
increased exports as a component of the sales and profit, salaries and wages rocketed and there was an opportunity for every
stakeholder at seemingly no risk. All and sundry began to think of themselves as world-beaters.
Now that they have been beaten by the world it is time to reset the approach to avoid a Ctrl-Alt-Del situation. Identifying and
seizing opportunities require a profound understanding of markets and customer expectations. Product, process and service
have to be tailored to the ‘emerging’ customer need rather than the current need. The new paradigm is: what can we make that
you want to buy as against – we have a product you have to buy! Indian corporates need to develop products and services that
are centered around unmet needs of customers and go out and market, rather than sell, them. This requires understanding
market reality, shifts and drivers on an ongoing continuous basis.
Indian firms need to invest in understanding factors critical to their success – the physical, political, economic, social,
technology and trade frameworks that will drive the competencies they need to acquire to leverage an opportunity. This
requires a realistic estimate of the value chains that deliver results at least risk and their own strengths and weaknesses to
manage and mitigate the risks while making the most of the opportunity. The iPhone is an excellent example of this approach.
In a commoditizing market Apple identified the needs that users, young, old and mid-age, wanted and produced a user-
friendly product. The factor critical to its success is its ease of connectivity, high-speed download off the Internet and elegant looks, not to mention superb feature list. The least concern for the user is the phone attributes, which, in any case, are good! In
contrast, all the leading players of two years ago are now playing catch-up with iPhone, which, incidentally, offers a limited
range of models, in contrast to the dizzying array and colours from other phone-makers! A good risk reduction exercise.
Risk needs to be understood in its totality. Risk, defined as the possibility that events may not turn out as planned or expected,
has many dimensions to it, much of it ignored in a high growth era, and all of which become relevant and rear up when least
desired, in difficult times. The primary risk Indian corporate need to contend with is strategic risk – the ability to identify and
seize an opportunity and allot resources to ensure delivery. It is sad to see the ‘retail revolution’ leaders of mid-2008,
languishing in sour deals. The closure of 20 per cent of these ‘modern format stores’ is a telling commentary on the poor
assessment of strategic risk. Minimizing strategic risk increases the competitiveness of the firm.
The second major risk facing Indian corporate is operational risk; Indian productivity remains way behind global standards. And corporates have not even begun addressing them. The garment industry is a case in point. On average, an Indian garment-
maker produces 7 – 10 garments per machine per day. The world standard is 23 – 25! No wage differential can mask the harmful consequences of this depth of under-performance. Remove the subsidies and the garment industry will sink like a
stone. Reducing operational risk increases asset and resource productivity. Capacity utilization is a good mitigator of
operational and strategic risk; and both of them could do with significant streamlining. With increasing profitability Indian firms
have been diversifying – a nice, but risky way, to seek opportunities. Real estate is littered with firms which saw ‘opportunity’,
created land banks and are now sitting ducks.